trends for 2009

I've just started getting emails about predictions for next year. With all the usual caveats that come with this sort of thing, here's my first theme for 2009.

"Intelligent Participation"

This will manifest itself in:

1. TV drama with interactive storylines will be big. British soap opera Emmerdale ran an interactive murder mystery storyline last year. I think we're going to get much more of this sort of thing, with a move towards incorporating meaningful audience participation into 'serious' drama too.

2. Curator as expert (rebirth of the expert?) As a reaction against the 'anything goes' culture of youtube (and 2.0 generally??), the quality of curatorship will be under closer scrutiny than ever before. We don't have time to wade through all the clutter.

3. Old media will secure the brightest talent from new media (promise of better job security, bigger budgets and unprecedented creative freedom). This will result in more diverse, niche and courageous programming/editorial that understands (and is therefore less intimidated by) its audience.

4. Dull stuff will be easier to ignore. With more intelligent interaction we'll be able to discriminate between turkeys and guilty pleasures.

5. We'll all be less guilty about our guilty pleasures and more independent in our choices.

6. Economic uncertainty and fear of terrorism will be balanced by a cultural optimism and an outpouring of creativity.